* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP092021 08/05/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 32 30 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 32 30 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 31 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 6 8 11 16 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 3 4 5 -1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 226 247 281 274 287 277 266 266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.5 23.8 23.5 23.8 24.0 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 116 112 107 100 97 99 101 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 66 64 61 58 52 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 50 48 38 36 33 19 6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 20 18 25 -4 -28 -5 1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 -3 2 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1886 1816 1747 1670 1593 1446 1307 1165 1030 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.2 19.2 20.1 20.8 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.3 137.9 138.4 139.0 139.7 141.0 142.3 143.7 145.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -5. -13. -18. -22. -27. -28. -28. -29. -30. -31. -30. -30. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.2 137.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 JIMENA 08/05/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.33 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.6% 3.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 JIMENA 08/05/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##