* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP092021 08/06/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 30 27 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 30 27 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 30 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 8 10 14 14 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 4 4 2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 264 267 268 280 291 267 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.1 23.6 23.6 23.9 24.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 109 103 98 97 100 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 62 60 56 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 43 39 37 37 25 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 13 17 0 -19 -10 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 -1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1853 1780 1708 1627 1547 1392 1244 1100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.4 20.2 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 137.5 138.1 138.7 139.4 140.1 141.5 142.9 144.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -19. -23. -25. -25. -26. -27. -28. -29. -28. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 137.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 JIMENA 08/06/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 JIMENA 08/06/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##