* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP092021 08/06/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 29 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 30 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 12 16 15 14 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 4 5 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 273 279 270 284 295 295 281 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.2 23.5 23.5 23.9 24.3 24.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 109 104 97 97 100 104 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 2 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 59 58 54 47 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 9 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 33 30 32 26 15 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 11 1 -23 -25 -10 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 -3 -3 2 -2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1791 1716 1642 1547 1453 1282 1131 983 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.2 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 138.0 138.7 139.3 140.2 141.0 142.6 144.0 145.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -21. -26. -28. -29. -30. -31. -32. -33. -32. -31. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 138.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 JIMENA 08/06/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.26 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 JIMENA 08/06/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##