* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112021 08/07/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 48 57 65 73 76 83 81 76 69 61 55 50 44 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 48 57 65 73 76 83 81 76 69 61 55 50 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 46 52 57 60 62 60 55 46 37 28 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 15 15 15 19 25 19 16 21 6 5 3 5 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 0 3 1 2 0 2 -1 3 0 2 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 36 48 46 43 52 68 47 49 39 40 52 73 29 72 240 257 258 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.1 27.8 25.5 22.7 21.2 20.9 20.5 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 154 156 155 150 146 145 145 143 120 92 76 72 67 66 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -52.4 -52.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.0 -51.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 83 84 83 84 82 82 82 82 82 83 79 76 71 64 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 14 16 19 23 24 29 30 28 26 23 21 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 4 7 23 14 13 38 46 62 77 72 59 64 48 38 31 32 30 200 MB DIV 80 66 103 118 92 109 115 95 109 70 33 51 20 -23 0 9 0 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -13 -11 -13 -7 -5 0 0 -1 4 -2 5 LAND (KM) 335 362 398 426 483 606 714 785 792 679 509 399 491 712 999 1155 1341 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.9 18.0 20.1 22.6 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.1 105.8 106.6 107.4 108.3 110.0 111.8 113.4 114.1 113.9 113.9 115.4 118.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 6 3 9 12 16 17 17 16 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 16 16 16 14 12 11 14 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 28. 30. 29. 27. 24. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 17. 21. 28. 28. 24. 19. 15. 11. 7. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 27. 35. 43. 46. 53. 51. 46. 39. 31. 25. 20. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.8 105.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 ELEVEN 08/07/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.34 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 7.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 21.4% 17.6% 16.4% 0.0% 17.1% 15.9% 16.3% Logistic: 3.2% 20.6% 9.3% 5.3% 3.4% 18.0% 35.7% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% Consensus: 4.1% 15.0% 9.3% 7.3% 1.2% 12.0% 17.4% 7.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 ELEVEN 08/07/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##