* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112021 08/07/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 54 61 70 78 79 82 81 72 62 54 46 40 33 27 V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 54 61 70 78 79 82 81 72 62 54 46 40 33 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 49 54 61 66 67 67 65 57 48 39 32 25 20 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 19 19 16 26 22 14 17 20 13 11 10 9 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -1 1 0 3 2 -3 1 1 -1 0 1 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 50 59 57 60 65 59 55 41 27 67 55 36 21 38 23 42 5 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.1 28.2 26.8 25.9 25.1 23.4 22.7 22.2 21.8 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 155 155 153 149 145 146 132 122 114 97 89 84 81 71 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 83 83 83 84 84 82 83 81 80 74 70 63 58 51 46 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 18 19 23 24 27 29 28 25 23 20 18 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 1 13 9 12 17 30 48 47 96 96 114 106 87 75 66 57 33 200 MB DIV 72 102 117 94 112 134 107 123 100 22 9 -10 -31 -9 6 0 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -5 -11 -22 -15 -7 -6 -8 1 3 -1 5 -2 LAND (KM) 413 450 499 560 624 720 758 711 698 740 832 938 1003 1148 1331 1505 1557 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.8 16.0 16.4 17.3 18.7 19.6 20.2 21.1 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 107.2 108.1 108.8 109.5 110.8 112.2 113.3 115.0 116.8 118.7 120.7 122.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 17 18 15 12 9 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25. 24. 22. 19. 16. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 11. 15. 21. 25. 22. 17. 13. 9. 6. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 26. 35. 43. 44. 47. 46. 37. 27. 19. 11. 5. -2. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.8 106.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 ELEVEN 08/07/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.26 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 28.2% 20.4% 19.1% 11.2% 19.5% 17.0% 18.9% Logistic: 10.3% 31.8% 13.7% 8.9% 5.5% 22.5% 29.7% 5.7% Bayesian: 5.0% 16.5% 7.7% 1.8% 0.7% 3.7% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 9.1% 25.5% 14.0% 10.0% 5.8% 15.2% 15.7% 8.3% DTOPS: 7.0% 29.0% 16.0% 14.0% 6.0% 15.0% 15.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 ELEVEN 08/07/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##