* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP092021 08/08/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 21 19 20 19 19 22 23 28 18 10 12 13 14 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 4 5 4 7 4 2 2 -2 -4 -1 6 7 8 3 2 SHEAR DIR 282 269 267 256 242 230 218 221 214 227 219 188 146 132 123 105 68 SST (C) 23.7 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.1 24.3 24.2 24.5 25.2 25.6 26.3 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 98 98 99 100 99 98 98 99 101 104 104 108 116 122 129 139 142 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 50 50 47 44 42 39 33 30 25 22 19 19 16 14 17 23 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 5 -2 -7 -15 -17 -23 -10 -27 -3 -7 3 -3 4 7 12 11 200 MB DIV 9 -7 -6 -2 -5 -22 -12 -27 -18 -45 -22 -7 0 -21 -37 -30 -16 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 4 1 0 -2 -4 -2 -5 0 -3 -1 -5 -6 -13 -7 LAND (KM) 1246 1192 1161 1141 1122 1116 1105 1071 1006 920 807 647 481 405 504 801 1127 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.0 20.7 20.4 20.0 19.2 18.2 17.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.9 143.4 143.7 143.9 144.1 144.2 144.3 144.6 145.2 146.0 147.1 148.8 151.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 1 1 2 4 6 8 11 14 16 17 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 16. 15. 14. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -8. -14. -18. -17. -16. -15. -15. -16. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -27. -30. -32. -32. -32. -31. -30. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 19.3 142.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092021 JIMENA 08/08/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.16 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.04 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 37.8 to 2.1 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092021 JIMENA 08/08/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##