* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/08/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 50 55 59 68 71 73 67 59 50 42 34 27 23 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 50 55 59 68 71 73 67 59 50 42 34 27 23 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 48 51 55 58 57 51 43 37 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 19 20 20 23 25 25 20 17 17 15 12 7 7 7 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 1 1 -1 4 0 0 -3 -2 0 -1 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 57 63 72 65 53 54 58 60 73 73 78 66 73 45 90 119 155 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.1 28.3 27.6 25.9 25.6 24.1 22.8 21.9 21.6 21.0 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 153 154 150 144 147 140 122 119 104 91 81 78 73 73 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 83 83 83 84 85 85 81 78 76 72 65 58 55 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 20 19 24 25 27 25 24 22 20 18 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 11 10 13 20 30 36 44 73 76 79 60 76 63 39 25 2 20 200 MB DIV 125 93 91 134 116 86 74 70 0 30 23 6 -13 -10 -2 8 -19 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -2 -5 -7 -10 -11 -6 -1 -6 0 0 3 5 7 9 LAND (KM) 523 583 647 679 709 736 696 701 746 784 876 971 1119 1284 1424 1534 1737 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.5 17.4 18.2 19.2 20.1 21.0 21.8 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.0 109.7 110.2 110.6 111.8 113.2 114.5 116.3 118.0 119.8 122.0 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 4 5 7 8 8 10 9 10 12 12 11 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 18 17 15 12 8 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 19. 17. 15. 11. 8. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 14. 11. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 19. 28. 31. 33. 27. 19. 10. 2. -6. -13. -17. -23. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.8 108.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/08/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.75 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.10 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.61 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 22.5% 18.0% 16.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 7.9% 2.0% 1.2% 0.4% 2.0% 2.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 10.5% 6.9% 6.0% 3.3% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% DTOPS: 7.0% 18.0% 10.0% 7.0% 5.0% 10.0% 11.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/08/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##