* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/09/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 58 60 65 67 62 55 46 36 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 58 60 65 67 62 55 46 36 28 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 54 55 56 53 47 39 32 26 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 20 23 22 23 22 15 18 16 11 10 12 10 11 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 2 0 2 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 61 46 51 43 57 48 71 81 78 62 58 43 52 60 83 92 181 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.6 28.8 26.9 26.3 25.0 23.5 22.4 21.8 21.5 21.1 21.3 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 150 147 150 152 132 126 113 98 86 80 78 73 74 80 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 83 82 82 83 81 78 73 70 64 60 56 51 46 43 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 23 25 25 28 29 27 25 22 19 17 14 12 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 32 46 44 62 80 75 76 76 70 48 34 22 17 17 14 200 MB DIV 127 122 105 86 90 65 23 -2 5 -1 -9 -34 7 -12 -14 -16 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -6 -10 -7 -10 -6 -3 -3 -2 0 1 -1 2 5 10 11 LAND (KM) 659 685 712 707 695 703 746 789 842 953 1056 1201 1354 1534 1700 1858 1859 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.8 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.1 22.0 22.8 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.5 111.0 111.8 112.5 114.0 115.6 117.4 118.9 120.9 123.3 125.6 127.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 11 12 10 11 13 13 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 11 9 12 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 4. 1. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 5. 7. 10. 10. 8. 4. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 15. 17. 12. 5. -4. -14. -22. -31. -37. -42. -47. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.9 110.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/09/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.05 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.87 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 18.7% 15.7% 14.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.9% 5.4% 4.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 16.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 7.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/09/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##