* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/09/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 45 47 51 51 48 43 39 31 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 45 47 51 51 48 43 39 31 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 43 43 42 39 34 28 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 21 20 20 20 19 15 13 9 12 10 9 10 10 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 0 0 4 3 4 2 2 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 57 52 41 49 52 55 75 73 64 46 57 50 75 117 149 174 193 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.9 28.2 26.4 25.4 23.9 22.9 22.0 21.7 21.1 21.0 21.8 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 147 148 153 146 128 117 101 91 82 80 73 72 81 91 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 79 81 82 82 82 80 79 73 67 66 62 58 53 48 46 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 24 26 29 28 27 23 23 20 17 14 11 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 29 33 40 43 41 79 74 86 82 77 58 39 31 19 10 -1 17 200 MB DIV 119 83 70 89 89 26 -15 -10 0 -2 -22 -8 1 2 -12 0 -17 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -12 -9 -9 -6 -7 -1 -4 0 0 -5 6 3 7 9 8 LAND (KM) 697 726 703 689 687 729 761 823 933 1001 1120 1285 1475 1587 1743 1898 1599 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.3 19.1 20.1 21.0 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.2 111.8 112.6 113.4 115.0 116.4 118.5 120.5 122.4 124.4 126.7 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 8 10 11 10 9 11 12 12 12 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 11 9 10 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 10. 6. 2. -2. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 5. 0. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 0. 3. 6. 6. 3. -2. -6. -14. -23. -30. -36. -38. -43. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.1 110.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/09/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.3 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/09/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##