* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/09/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 47 47 49 49 48 46 40 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 47 47 49 49 48 46 40 33 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 46 46 43 39 33 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 21 19 16 18 19 14 16 13 11 8 7 5 9 9 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 0 2 3 4 0 3 3 1 0 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 53 63 51 47 63 66 76 66 63 40 60 83 112 147 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.5 28.6 26.9 25.9 24.6 23.2 22.3 21.9 21.4 20.9 21.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 147 149 150 132 122 109 95 85 82 76 71 77 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 80 83 81 81 79 74 67 64 57 52 47 43 39 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 25 25 27 27 25 24 22 20 17 14 11 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 38 41 39 58 90 78 85 84 76 56 56 47 41 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 78 103 90 75 42 0 -2 -6 -11 -7 7 16 -7 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -8 -12 -7 -5 -3 0 -2 3 -1 4 2 4 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 730 704 681 679 692 747 767 845 941 1041 1201 1392 1524 1654 1813 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.2 111.8 112.4 113.2 114.1 115.7 117.2 119.1 121.1 123.2 125.6 128.1 130.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 9 9 10 11 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 4. -1. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -5. -12. -20. -27. -33. -39. -43. -42. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.4 111.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/09/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.03 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.6 2.2 to -2.3 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.9% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/09/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##