* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/09/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 46 47 43 40 35 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 46 47 43 40 35 31 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 45 45 43 39 34 29 24 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 17 17 19 18 16 15 10 14 10 6 5 9 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 2 5 4 2 0 1 5 0 1 1 2 0 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 56 59 54 59 56 75 77 50 38 39 72 110 146 136 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.0 26.5 25.4 24.0 22.6 21.9 21.7 21.1 21.0 22.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 147 149 150 144 128 117 103 89 82 79 73 72 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 81 81 79 77 76 70 64 58 53 50 45 42 37 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 26 28 25 24 21 21 18 16 13 10 8 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 45 39 59 84 76 91 90 84 69 59 58 50 33 14 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 103 84 77 37 -2 12 2 -9 -28 -3 9 -8 -15 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -12 -12 -7 -5 -7 -1 -2 3 -1 1 3 4 10 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 704 687 682 692 714 746 784 894 979 1105 1289 1462 1563 1706 1888 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.2 20.1 21.0 21.7 22.5 23.4 24.1 24.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.6 113.3 114.1 114.9 116.3 118.0 120.0 122.0 124.3 126.9 129.4 131.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 9 10 10 11 12 13 11 12 13 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 10 11 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 1. -3. -7. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 0. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. -2. -5. -10. -14. -22. -29. -36. -42. -47. -50. -50. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.8 111.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/09/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/09/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##