* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIX AL062021 08/10/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 37 40 44 50 50 53 55 60 69 75 77 80 76 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 37 32 35 41 42 44 46 52 61 67 68 42 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 30 33 35 37 39 42 47 54 59 62 41 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 9 15 18 17 11 20 16 19 20 23 18 20 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 -4 1 -3 1 -2 1 -6 4 SHEAR DIR 272 296 311 285 290 300 289 272 265 257 264 235 269 251 272 236 258 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.8 30.2 30.5 31.3 30.0 29.6 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 149 152 152 147 151 154 157 166 171 171 171 169 161 166 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 148 151 150 142 144 143 144 152 157 161 171 146 138 143 136 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 5 6 3 700-500 MB RH 51 55 55 56 59 62 63 66 67 71 68 69 64 67 67 72 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 11 9 8 6 7 6 7 8 11 15 18 20 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 39 38 34 33 30 23 4 2 -2 -3 -10 -12 -12 1 -4 25 21 200 MB DIV 42 34 40 25 11 28 1 21 21 21 52 36 55 49 50 37 30 700-850 TADV 9 10 5 3 1 10 -2 0 -13 -5 -14 -1 -2 8 3 9 8 LAND (KM) 503 384 215 78 15 -24 44 61 45 44 89 76 30 69 46 -149 -345 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.9 19.2 20.3 21.2 21.9 22.7 23.8 25.1 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.5 63.0 64.4 65.8 67.3 70.0 72.7 75.0 76.9 78.9 80.6 81.9 82.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 15 15 14 13 11 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 49 70 48 22 28 45 42 44 74 49 70 39 32 8 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 32. 36. 40. 41. 42. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -6. -0. 3. 4. 5. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 11. 14. 20. 20. 23. 25. 30. 39. 46. 47. 50. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 61.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 SIX 08/10/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 15.1% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 23.1% 24.4% 14.2% 2.7% 9.3% 7.1% 13.1% Bayesian: 1.3% 8.6% 3.9% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 1.9% 0.4% Consensus: 4.1% 15.6% 12.6% 4.8% 1.0% 6.7% 3.0% 4.5% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 SIX 08/10/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 SIX 08/10/2021 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 36 37 32 35 41 42 44 46 52 61 67 68 42 32 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 35 30 33 39 40 42 44 50 59 65 66 40 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 24 27 33 34 36 38 44 53 59 60 34 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 16 19 25 26 28 30 36 45 51 52 26 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT