* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122021 08/10/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 42 51 58 67 75 84 85 87 84 84 77 76 73 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 42 51 58 67 75 84 85 87 84 84 77 76 73 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 34 36 40 45 51 57 61 65 63 58 53 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 26 22 22 17 20 13 14 16 17 14 17 11 12 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 1 3 0 2 1 1 -3 0 -1 1 6 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 356 359 10 18 27 30 1 343 4 48 50 78 80 71 86 101 138 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.1 28.3 27.0 26.8 25.7 25.0 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 155 155 152 150 151 153 152 145 148 134 132 120 114 109 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -52.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 5 6 4 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 86 83 82 82 82 80 82 80 80 80 81 78 72 67 60 58 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 18 20 23 25 30 30 33 34 37 33 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -54 -55 -45 -42 -37 -17 -2 13 17 26 45 79 88 104 132 140 200 MB DIV 149 128 131 140 109 112 121 122 109 88 81 33 65 16 -14 10 -16 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -6 -5 -7 -3 -10 -7 -18 -10 0 1 1 1 2 0 -2 LAND (KM) 429 414 400 407 418 439 462 492 530 576 567 693 814 953 1104 1272 1481 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 6 7 9 10 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 23 20 18 17 15 15 13 12 7 8 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 33. 34. 34. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 16. 20. 27. 27. 29. 27. 28. 21. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 12. 21. 28. 37. 45. 54. 55. 57. 54. 54. 47. 46. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 100.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 TWELVE 08/10/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.85 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 6.7% 11.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 5.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 2.2% 3.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 16.0% 5.0% 3.0% 3.0% 8.0% 11.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 TWELVE 08/10/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##