* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/10/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 38 36 33 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 38 36 33 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 35 32 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 21 21 15 14 10 8 10 10 3 5 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 5 4 1 1 2 1 3 6 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 51 66 70 61 50 62 24 351 353 334 282 143 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.3 26.8 24.4 23.8 22.2 21.5 20.9 20.5 20.2 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 136 131 107 101 84 77 71 66 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 74 73 67 64 60 57 51 44 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 26 26 24 22 20 18 16 15 13 10 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 63 67 59 63 63 52 41 25 24 -13 -17 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 42 29 10 -1 -1 -4 -16 -24 13 -8 -11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -3 -6 -2 3 1 6 3 3 3 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 617 630 645 626 619 705 797 889 1051 1172 1206 1274 1358 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.3 20.8 22.0 22.9 23.8 24.8 25.9 26.9 27.7 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.7 115.3 115.9 116.5 118.5 120.8 122.7 125.0 127.2 129.2 131.0 132.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 12 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -4. -7. -12. -19. -26. -34. -40. -45. -48. -54. -55. -54. -54. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.8 114.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/10/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.54 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.12 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 8.7% 8.3% 7.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.0% 2.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/10/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##