* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122021 08/10/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 53 62 71 80 84 88 85 88 83 81 75 71 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 53 62 71 80 84 88 85 88 83 81 75 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 36 39 44 49 55 60 63 64 63 59 55 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 18 20 19 15 19 13 16 19 17 14 11 8 5 4 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 3 5 2 2 0 0 0 -3 0 2 6 4 2 2 6 SHEAR DIR 13 15 13 26 30 9 355 336 25 48 50 74 84 74 91 131 225 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.1 27.0 26.7 25.9 24.6 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 154 150 149 153 152 150 147 145 134 131 122 108 103 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.2 -52.3 -51.5 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 5 6 4 4 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 83 81 82 82 82 81 84 82 84 83 79 75 70 62 58 55 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 15 17 19 23 26 29 31 34 33 38 36 36 33 29 850 MB ENV VOR -56 -54 -36 -41 -49 -27 -22 -4 -1 15 30 63 83 105 140 138 130 200 MB DIV 126 169 177 148 118 135 112 112 92 96 40 67 9 -5 -13 9 -5 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -7 -6 -3 -6 -10 -12 -16 -1 -1 -1 1 0 1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 419 410 400 427 431 492 531 553 591 611 662 780 879 1039 1225 1339 1389 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.7 16.8 17.7 18.5 18.9 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.8 102.5 103.4 104.3 105.7 106.9 108.5 109.9 111.9 114.3 116.4 118.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 6 7 9 10 11 11 9 9 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 20 18 18 15 14 16 12 10 8 8 3 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 33. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 16. 22. 24. 29. 26. 29. 24. 22. 17. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 23. 32. 41. 50. 54. 58. 55. 58. 53. 51. 45. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 101.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 TWELVE 08/10/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 147.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.94 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 22.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.5% Logistic: 0.5% 3.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 3.0% 12.9% 14.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Consensus: 0.2% 8.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 4.3% 11.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 16.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 7.0% 19.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 TWELVE 08/10/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##