* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 38 35 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 38 35 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 43 40 37 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 21 16 14 14 9 10 9 5 2 5 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 2 1 3 2 2 7 2 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 66 67 59 64 71 16 9 353 268 217 176 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.6 24.7 23.1 21.8 21.3 20.7 20.4 20.6 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 131 126 119 110 94 80 75 68 64 66 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 71 70 69 66 60 56 55 48 43 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 24 21 20 19 18 15 14 12 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 83 78 78 79 69 46 40 34 12 -10 -24 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 3 0 -5 -11 7 5 -20 13 -16 -1 -16 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -1 1 0 3 2 4 6 8 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 707 710 701 712 737 808 906 1044 1199 1226 1267 1329 1397 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.0 22.1 23.0 24.1 25.2 26.2 27.1 27.8 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.9 116.6 117.4 118.2 120.0 122.3 124.6 126.7 128.6 130.3 131.8 133.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -16. -19. -23. -24. -24. -22. -20. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -10. -16. -24. -34. -42. -46. -51. -54. -59. -59. -59. -59. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.8 115.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/10/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##