* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/10/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 57 63 72 77 85 88 88 86 85 80 77 73 68 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 57 63 72 77 85 88 88 86 85 80 77 73 68 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 50 53 57 61 67 73 75 75 74 70 63 57 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 23 24 21 23 17 14 19 19 20 19 13 13 6 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 3 1 1 -3 1 -2 1 -2 2 2 1 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 20 24 38 40 44 4 352 5 45 49 62 78 80 72 103 209 227 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.6 26.4 26.3 25.0 24.7 23.8 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 152 150 149 148 151 149 148 142 140 127 126 113 110 100 105 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 81 82 82 81 82 81 78 79 78 74 68 63 57 54 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 17 19 20 25 26 30 31 32 35 37 36 36 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -46 -39 -41 -30 -17 -5 12 19 22 50 63 87 104 107 122 120 200 MB DIV 151 167 132 109 103 101 134 111 103 63 63 50 38 7 9 -17 -29 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -8 -6 -6 -11 -8 -18 -13 -2 -1 0 2 2 4 0 1 LAND (KM) 376 400 404 431 460 517 545 600 618 649 730 816 957 1114 1245 1378 1524 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.8 16.8 17.7 18.5 19.2 19.6 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.4 103.4 104.4 105.1 105.8 107.0 108.5 110.0 112.1 114.1 116.0 117.9 119.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 6 7 8 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 15 14 13 14 11 9 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 11. 16. 22. 25. 26. 27. 27. 24. 21. 19. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 23. 32. 37. 45. 48. 48. 47. 45. 40. 37. 33. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.2 102.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/10/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 132.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.86 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 1.6% 6.2% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Consensus: 0.3% 7.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 2.1% 2.6% DTOPS: 7.0% 37.0% 26.0% 15.0% 14.0% 21.0% 30.0% 41.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/10/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##