* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 41 38 35 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 41 38 35 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 45 43 40 37 30 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 15 13 12 9 10 11 11 9 6 7 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 6 3 6 5 2 -2 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 60 62 61 66 29 7 345 322 293 223 232 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.8 26.3 25.7 24.8 24.1 22.2 21.4 20.9 20.5 20.3 20.6 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 131 127 120 111 104 84 76 70 66 63 66 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 74 73 70 68 66 60 56 51 45 38 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 23 22 21 20 19 17 14 12 9 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 55 48 59 60 46 31 14 0 -23 -35 -61 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -8 -5 -10 3 -2 -22 -13 4 -9 0 -13 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -1 2 1 0 6 7 10 6 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 671 643 620 650 697 769 858 1041 1143 1162 1222 1294 1316 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.8 23.9 24.8 25.9 26.8 27.5 28.2 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.8 116.4 117.4 118.3 120.3 122.4 124.9 126.7 128.4 130.1 131.7 133.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -24. -26. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -14. -20. -24. -25. -27. -27. -24. -22. -20. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -7. -10. -17. -27. -38. -47. -53. -56. -60. -63. -64. -64. -64. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.3 115.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/11/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##