* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 58 64 71 78 83 90 90 88 85 83 79 75 71 67 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 58 64 71 78 83 90 90 88 85 83 79 75 71 67 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 55 59 62 69 75 80 83 82 76 70 65 59 55 49 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 22 22 17 18 17 13 17 17 17 12 9 11 9 2 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 1 -1 0 0 0 -1 1 0 3 1 1 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 25 43 32 35 21 7 349 27 52 56 56 71 73 94 103 136 214 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.4 28.1 28.0 26.9 26.3 25.4 24.9 24.4 23.6 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 149 148 148 151 149 145 144 133 127 117 111 106 98 104 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.0 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 6 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 81 83 82 80 81 82 79 80 80 78 75 70 63 61 57 56 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 21 24 28 30 33 33 33 33 34 34 33 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -55 -54 -41 -28 -10 8 13 8 21 41 54 74 103 100 92 91 200 MB DIV 157 121 95 106 108 101 103 92 80 46 57 11 25 -12 10 -27 -9 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -4 -5 -4 -10 -17 -20 -1 -2 0 1 1 3 1 0 2 LAND (KM) 402 408 424 457 493 523 562 651 628 698 773 884 1053 1159 1244 1357 1529 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.3 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.7 19.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.1 104.0 104.8 105.5 106.2 107.5 109.1 110.9 113.0 115.0 116.9 118.9 121.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 11 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 14 13 14 13 10 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 23. 24. 23. 22. 21. 19. 16. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 19. 26. 33. 38. 45. 45. 43. 40. 38. 34. 30. 26. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.3 103.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.78 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.04 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.87 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 21.9% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% Logistic: 1.7% 7.3% 3.4% 1.7% 0.6% 3.1% 7.1% 7.6% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9% Consensus: 4.2% 10.2% 7.5% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 2.4% 7.3% DTOPS: 12.0% 44.0% 38.0% 27.0% 18.0% 24.0% 21.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/11/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##