* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 32 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 32 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 35 32 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 13 11 11 11 10 7 4 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 3 5 6 4 7 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 67 72 67 58 40 39 355 264 227 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.0 24.5 23.3 21.6 21.0 20.5 20.4 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 123 113 108 96 78 72 66 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -52.6 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 65 63 60 55 52 42 38 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 21 20 19 19 15 12 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 56 63 63 54 39 27 9 -3 -20 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -12 -11 1 1 -12 -30 12 -17 -13 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 1 2 0 5 6 9 8 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 677 670 679 725 766 828 966 1115 1157 1171 1203 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 23.2 24.2 25.4 26.5 27.6 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.7 117.5 118.5 119.4 121.5 123.8 125.9 127.9 129.5 130.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -8. -13. -18. -22. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -18. -29. -39. -43. -48. -52. -54. -55. -56. -56. -57. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.7 115.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/11/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##