* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/11/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 54 61 67 74 81 85 82 80 78 75 72 68 65 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 54 61 67 74 81 85 82 80 78 75 72 68 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 51 54 57 61 64 65 63 59 56 52 47 42 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 18 17 18 14 18 13 14 10 11 7 10 6 3 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 2 5 1 3 -1 0 0 2 4 3 5 2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 48 31 26 9 7 350 1 30 44 66 92 91 84 94 85 131 184 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 26.4 26.2 25.3 24.7 24.1 24.2 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 148 148 148 151 150 146 144 143 128 125 116 109 103 105 99 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 80 81 81 79 80 78 75 69 64 59 56 54 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 19 20 23 26 29 30 33 31 31 32 32 30 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -67 -57 -34 -32 -15 4 13 6 22 42 61 80 94 94 87 95 200 MB DIV 119 97 98 97 108 111 100 87 70 39 2 10 0 -2 -10 -32 -21 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -3 -4 -12 -14 -23 -6 -1 2 2 3 4 4 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 441 476 521 531 548 564 630 639 661 748 824 974 1175 1277 1358 1477 1651 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.4 16.6 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.5 19.7 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.9 105.7 106.3 106.9 108.3 110.2 112.1 113.9 115.8 117.9 120.0 122.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 7 9 11 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 13 13 15 11 9 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 15. 14. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 16. 20. 23. 21. 20. 18. 17. 13. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 22. 29. 36. 40. 37. 35. 33. 30. 27. 23. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.2 104.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/11/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.05 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.88 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 18.4% 15.8% 14.8% 8.4% 16.1% 15.4% 12.1% Logistic: 0.6% 3.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.5% 5.7% 5.1% 2.9% 5.8% 5.9% 5.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 15.0% 7.0% 5.0% 4.0% 13.0% 24.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/11/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##