* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/11/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 60 62 68 72 75 77 79 79 78 73 69 68 64 60 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 60 62 68 72 75 77 79 79 78 73 69 68 64 60 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 56 57 59 61 62 63 63 63 60 56 51 47 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 13 15 18 18 15 20 17 18 11 12 12 11 5 0 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 6 3 4 2 -1 -1 -3 0 1 0 -2 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 43 29 13 6 7 357 23 56 65 71 71 65 76 70 290 181 235 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.0 28.4 28.3 27.0 26.6 25.5 24.5 24.2 24.4 24.1 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 146 147 150 151 145 149 147 133 129 118 108 104 106 104 98 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 81 81 81 80 78 76 73 68 61 57 54 53 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 23 25 26 27 29 30 32 31 30 31 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR -76 -68 -50 -38 -27 -10 -8 -10 7 22 38 52 68 90 89 82 89 200 MB DIV 92 93 105 103 112 108 72 59 29 65 33 11 -3 -2 -17 -2 -17 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -13 -11 -16 -23 -4 -1 1 3 3 3 1 0 4 6 LAND (KM) 554 585 622 633 641 710 748 752 845 904 1007 1160 1332 1442 1504 1605 1765 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.4 16.5 17.4 18.1 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.4 107.1 107.7 108.4 110.2 112.2 114.2 116.3 118.1 119.8 121.8 124.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 7 8 10 11 11 10 9 9 10 9 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 14 19 14 9 13 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 16. 14. 13. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. 29. 28. 23. 19. 18. 14. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.8 105.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/11/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.70 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.15 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 23.3% 18.9% 17.7% 10.4% 18.3% 14.8% 10.4% Logistic: 1.4% 5.4% 1.8% 0.9% 0.2% 1.4% 2.1% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.0% 10.1% 7.2% 6.2% 3.5% 6.7% 5.7% 4.3% DTOPS: 10.0% 36.0% 22.0% 12.0% 12.0% 22.0% 25.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/11/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##