* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP112021 08/11/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 33 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 33 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 36 33 30 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 13 12 10 11 11 8 11 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 6 7 5 8 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 64 50 33 26 17 308 253 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.0 24.2 23.9 23.1 21.5 20.8 20.2 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 113 105 102 94 78 70 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 63 62 59 53 50 44 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 20 20 19 17 14 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 54 48 44 35 19 5 -16 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 0 0 -5 -2 -12 6 -4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 4 1 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 663 704 744 766 798 938 1081 1075 1074 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.8 23.4 24.6 25.9 27.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.3 119.2 120.3 121.3 123.7 126.0 127.7 129.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 13 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -7. -9. -14. -18. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -32. -38. -44. -46. -48. -51. -53. -56. -57. -59. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.0 117.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112021 KEVIN 08/11/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.24 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112021 KEVIN 08/11/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##