* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/11/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 72 76 81 88 90 88 86 84 81 75 70 67 62 59 54 V (KT) LAND 60 66 72 76 81 88 90 88 86 84 81 75 70 67 62 59 54 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 71 74 76 80 82 83 83 81 75 67 58 51 47 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 19 16 15 17 17 14 15 17 13 13 6 3 4 4 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 5 1 5 -3 0 -1 0 2 3 1 -2 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 24 4 5 2 352 2 43 49 57 73 53 64 53 359 275 199 244 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.4 28.0 28.6 28.0 27.3 26.2 25.5 24.4 24.3 24.9 23.6 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 146 149 152 149 145 151 144 136 125 118 106 105 112 99 97 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 81 80 81 80 76 76 70 66 59 54 49 45 41 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 21 21 22 26 28 29 30 31 33 32 32 31 28 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR -66 -53 -44 -31 -12 -7 -10 -16 9 21 33 47 63 93 111 118 111 200 MB DIV 79 95 93 112 118 99 66 18 23 20 18 -4 16 -7 -7 1 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -12 -11 -13 -25 -12 -2 0 2 1 3 2 0 1 6 11 LAND (KM) 589 618 653 661 673 746 755 781 893 978 1092 1240 1377 1496 1615 1744 1881 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.5 16.6 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.6 107.3 108.1 108.9 110.7 112.7 114.8 116.9 118.8 120.6 122.5 124.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 13 17 24 12 9 14 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 14. 12. 8. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 14. 8. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 21. 28. 30. 28. 26. 24. 21. 15. 10. 7. 2. -1. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.6 105.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/11/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.43 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.22 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 38.0% 23.4% 22.8% 13.7% 19.6% 14.2% 9.1% Logistic: 5.5% 13.7% 5.4% 3.3% 0.8% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% Bayesian: 2.1% 8.4% 6.1% 2.5% 0.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 7.4% 20.0% 11.6% 9.5% 4.9% 8.7% 6.4% 4.6% DTOPS: 48.0% 68.0% 63.0% 47.0% 38.0% 46.0% 13.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/11/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##