* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/12/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 30 32 39 43 51 54 59 59 61 58 54 49 50 V (KT) LAND 30 29 32 32 33 36 43 46 54 57 62 45 33 29 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 31 30 29 29 30 32 34 37 38 32 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 20 17 17 21 18 19 19 16 17 18 25 26 33 34 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 -4 1 -1 2 -5 -4 -4 -4 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 291 289 294 282 273 280 263 270 246 265 242 274 264 269 264 285 294 SST (C) 28.9 29.3 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.7 29.8 30.6 30.2 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 30.0 29.3 29.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 158 152 152 154 164 165 171 171 165 166 164 164 168 156 163 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 152 144 142 144 152 149 165 155 144 141 137 134 139 131 136 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -55.0 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 4 6 2 5 1 5 700-500 MB RH 55 58 59 62 66 66 69 67 68 67 69 68 70 72 71 66 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 9 8 12 12 14 11 11 8 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 32 12 -3 0 6 -17 -4 -19 17 4 27 4 17 -7 7 -1 -60 200 MB DIV 43 34 20 12 9 0 14 12 34 3 50 21 32 25 25 -10 -36 700-850 TADV 6 8 1 0 -5 -4 -7 -1 -4 5 0 4 0 4 3 0 3 LAND (KM) -66 -11 31 26 31 31 49 69 101 103 65 -68 -146 -267 -269 -339 -439 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.8 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.5 23.4 24.6 26.2 27.8 29.3 30.5 31.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.6 72.9 74.1 75.1 76.1 78.4 80.2 81.4 83.0 83.9 84.4 84.8 85.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 12 10 8 9 10 8 7 6 5 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 34 36 42 49 45 65 62 43 29 32 19 5 5 4 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -14. -17. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -3. 1. 1. 2. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 9. 13. 21. 24. 29. 29. 31. 28. 24. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 71.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/12/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.19 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 155.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 3.5% 2.5% 1.8% 0.7% 5.2% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 5.3% 2.7% 1.8% 0.8% 2.5% 6.7% 15.5% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.9% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 2.6% 4.1% 5.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/12/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/12/2021 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 32 32 33 36 43 46 54 57 62 45 33 29 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 32 33 36 43 46 54 57 62 45 33 29 27 27 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 30 37 40 48 51 56 39 27 23 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 31 34 42 45 50 33 21 17 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT