* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/12/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 59 59 61 64 65 69 69 71 71 67 62 60 59 57 55 V (KT) LAND 60 58 59 59 61 64 65 69 69 71 71 67 62 60 59 57 55 V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 59 59 59 60 61 61 59 57 51 46 43 42 40 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 14 14 15 20 12 11 12 12 10 11 8 4 2 4 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 4 2 -1 1 -2 2 0 -1 0 -4 -1 -1 2 4 SHEAR DIR 358 359 344 347 3 49 55 58 75 60 59 57 72 337 210 223 211 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.5 28.0 28.5 27.8 26.9 25.8 25.5 24.5 24.4 25.0 23.9 24.0 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 151 153 150 145 150 142 133 121 117 107 107 113 102 103 90 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 79 80 78 80 80 79 72 70 64 60 56 55 50 47 44 42 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 21 21 23 25 23 26 25 27 27 27 26 25 24 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -32 -21 -8 -8 -14 -15 0 9 26 26 39 50 68 70 44 4 200 MB DIV 88 92 113 105 81 74 19 19 13 35 16 11 -5 -18 -17 -12 19 700-850 TADV -8 -10 -12 -16 -24 -6 1 1 4 2 3 4 1 1 4 5 14 LAND (KM) 606 630 647 672 713 747 766 838 968 1113 1242 1362 1504 1651 1801 1922 1947 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.6 17.6 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.6 108.5 109.5 110.4 112.5 114.7 116.6 119.1 121.1 122.6 124.3 126.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 11 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 20 20 13 9 13 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -5. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 7. 6. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 5. 9. 9. 11. 11. 7. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.9 106.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 3.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.67 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.19 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 18.5% 16.9% 16.3% 9.7% 14.1% 10.9% 7.3% Logistic: 0.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 7.1% 5.9% 5.6% 3.3% 4.9% 3.7% 2.5% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 7.0% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##