* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/12/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 68 73 77 76 75 73 70 73 69 67 64 60 55 49 V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 68 73 77 76 75 73 70 73 69 67 64 60 55 49 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 64 66 67 67 65 62 60 57 54 52 51 47 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 10 13 12 11 11 8 10 8 5 3 2 9 11 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 3 0 0 0 3 0 -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 5 345 351 6 33 57 73 63 75 66 54 359 272 193 234 206 202 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.7 26.5 26.1 25.4 25.0 24.5 24.7 24.1 23.6 23.5 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 150 148 143 142 129 124 117 112 107 109 103 98 98 84 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 79 78 74 71 66 61 56 54 51 49 45 45 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 23 23 21 22 22 22 25 25 25 25 25 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -27 -11 -11 -15 -15 -11 -9 8 16 21 36 53 57 51 46 45 200 MB DIV 61 80 105 91 56 47 -7 5 -3 26 13 24 -9 -20 -24 6 -11 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -11 -18 -14 0 1 5 4 3 5 2 1 2 4 6 9 LAND (KM) 581 584 606 654 700 678 753 835 964 1135 1287 1427 1541 1680 1807 1930 1957 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.7 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.6 19.4 19.3 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.2 109.1 110.2 111.2 113.4 115.6 117.7 119.8 121.8 123.7 125.5 127.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 14 12 11 8 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 6. 6. 6. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 16. 15. 13. 10. 13. 9. 7. 4. -0. -5. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 107.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 3.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.38 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.5% 23.8% 20.2% 19.3% 11.7% 16.5% 12.0% 6.9% Logistic: 2.7% 7.5% 3.2% 1.7% 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 10.8% 7.9% 7.1% 4.1% 6.1% 4.3% 2.5% DTOPS: 12.0% 28.0% 19.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##