* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/12/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 72 73 74 78 75 77 77 78 76 74 70 67 62 56 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 72 73 74 78 75 77 77 78 76 74 70 67 62 56 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 70 71 72 74 71 68 64 60 57 55 54 50 44 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 15 11 8 6 6 7 10 10 3 0 4 6 11 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 -1 2 2 4 0 -3 0 -3 -1 -3 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 346 355 9 30 61 60 74 33 46 56 47 127 256 228 241 226 233 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.9 24.7 24.7 25.1 24.2 24.1 23.1 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 150 148 144 143 136 128 123 122 109 109 114 104 104 94 84 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 79 77 71 69 61 58 55 55 52 50 48 45 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 23 23 21 25 23 26 26 28 27 27 27 26 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -17 -15 -16 -15 -13 -7 -5 12 20 34 51 72 64 52 52 35 200 MB DIV 71 84 85 60 59 16 14 -5 17 -1 29 0 -7 -17 -4 20 6 700-850 TADV -6 -12 -19 -15 -4 0 1 3 2 2 5 2 0 2 6 11 9 LAND (KM) 593 621 668 728 702 710 801 907 1058 1227 1378 1526 1664 1792 1916 1998 1965 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.0 18.1 18.8 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.9 18.8 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.2 109.2 110.1 111.2 112.4 114.5 116.6 118.7 120.6 122.5 124.4 126.3 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 13 12 9 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 5. 4. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 8. 9. 13. 10. 12. 12. 13. 11. 9. 5. 2. -3. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.0 108.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 3.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.44 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 22.9% 20.0% 19.3% 11.7% 16.4% 11.8% 6.8% Logistic: 2.0% 6.8% 3.0% 1.7% 0.4% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 10.4% 7.9% 7.1% 4.1% 6.2% 4.3% 2.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/12/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##