* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/13/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 84 85 86 84 80 79 77 76 72 70 64 60 54 48 V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 84 85 86 84 80 79 77 76 72 70 64 60 54 48 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 82 83 84 83 80 74 70 65 60 57 54 50 44 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 16 11 6 5 8 11 11 9 6 3 4 7 5 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 2 3 1 0 -1 -2 -2 0 3 1 7 3 4 SHEAR DIR 359 11 16 28 23 62 63 77 49 53 46 67 198 243 193 201 201 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.8 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.3 24.7 25.0 25.1 24.2 23.9 22.5 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 144 143 143 130 128 122 116 109 113 114 105 102 88 82 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 77 74 71 65 64 58 58 55 54 50 50 45 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 22 24 24 24 24 24 25 26 27 26 26 25 23 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -14 -17 -18 -20 -21 -18 -3 11 23 35 48 52 54 48 38 45 200 MB DIV 94 74 57 48 22 5 20 -10 18 -27 17 -10 -11 -22 9 -5 -9 700-850 TADV -12 -21 -18 -9 -1 1 2 4 1 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 LAND (KM) 606 654 700 681 682 760 843 991 1158 1315 1460 1611 1754 1866 1959 1986 1887 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.5 19.1 19.1 19.1 18.9 18.6 18.5 18.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.2 111.2 112.3 113.3 115.6 117.7 119.7 121.7 123.5 125.2 127.1 129.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 9 8 7 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -23. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 9. 5. 4. 2. 1. -3. -5. -11. -15. -21. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.6 109.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/13/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.29 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.37 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 20.8% 18.0% 17.1% 10.5% 14.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 5.8% 2.3% 1.4% 0.4% 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 9.4% 6.9% 6.2% 3.7% 5.2% 3.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 31.0% 27.0% 21.0% 16.0% 11.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/13/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##