* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/13/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 81 83 83 87 84 82 80 77 76 74 70 68 65 59 54 V (KT) LAND 75 78 81 83 83 87 84 82 80 77 76 74 70 68 65 59 54 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 81 82 82 82 79 74 68 63 60 58 56 52 46 40 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 12 6 7 6 10 9 9 3 2 3 4 3 4 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 2 2 3 0 -3 -1 0 3 0 5 4 4 5 SHEAR DIR 11 20 33 17 43 74 54 26 47 48 152 214 248 282 108 124 178 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.2 26.7 26.0 26.0 24.8 25.0 25.6 25.5 25.1 23.7 22.8 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 144 143 144 136 131 123 123 110 112 119 118 114 100 91 90 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 79 77 75 72 68 63 60 57 56 54 52 48 48 44 41 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 24 24 22 26 25 27 26 26 27 27 26 26 23 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -23 -21 -27 -25 -15 -12 3 8 26 43 55 56 49 40 33 32 200 MB DIV 65 47 48 17 19 25 0 11 -2 -2 -15 -6 -19 -22 5 -8 0 700-850 TADV -19 -16 -8 1 1 1 4 2 2 3 2 2 1 0 6 5 8 LAND (KM) 653 718 702 700 724 828 953 1105 1278 1433 1581 1743 1919 2080 2092 1872 1664 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.6 18.1 18.7 18.9 19.0 18.7 18.4 18.1 18.0 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.3 112.4 113.6 114.7 116.9 119.0 121.0 122.8 124.6 126.3 128.3 130.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 9 8 8 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 5. 5. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 7. 6. 3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 12. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -10. -16. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.1 110.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/13/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.41 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.69 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 18.6% 16.9% 16.0% 9.9% 13.5% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 5.0% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 8.3% 6.3% 5.7% 3.4% 5.0% 3.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 27.0% 24.0% 14.0% 11.0% 7.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/13/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##