* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/13/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 94 93 94 89 85 82 81 79 77 75 71 67 62 56 49 V (KT) LAND 90 93 94 93 94 89 85 82 81 79 77 75 71 67 62 56 49 V (KT) LGEM 90 93 94 94 92 87 80 74 68 63 60 59 56 50 43 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 8 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 2 4 3 2 5 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 0 3 2 0 -3 -4 0 1 1 6 3 4 4 SHEAR DIR 21 24 21 11 20 76 92 16 26 52 342 35 321 108 165 138 214 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.5 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.1 25.3 26.0 26.0 25.5 24.1 23.5 22.8 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 143 147 150 133 129 126 114 116 123 123 119 104 98 91 96 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 76 75 71 71 66 63 57 56 53 53 49 47 43 42 37 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 25 24 26 25 26 26 27 28 27 27 26 23 20 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -15 -16 -24 -18 -10 -2 2 21 35 53 60 67 58 55 45 48 200 MB DIV 39 57 40 32 16 20 -19 3 -18 6 -19 -13 -32 0 -3 -1 -9 700-850 TADV -16 -8 -1 1 0 4 6 1 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 LAND (KM) 711 693 704 743 799 903 1046 1218 1419 1581 1734 1881 2060 2139 1955 1738 1494 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.8 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.1 17.8 17.9 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.5 113.7 114.8 115.9 118.2 120.2 122.1 124.4 126.3 128.0 129.9 132.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 10 11 9 9 10 11 10 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 8 10 11 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -9. -14. -20. -24. -28. -30. -32. -35. -38. -43. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. -0. -4. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 4. -1. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -19. -23. -28. -34. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.6 111.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/13/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.55 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 18.0% 16.8% 15.9% 10.1% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 6.7% 3.1% 2.0% 0.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 8.9% 6.8% 6.0% 3.6% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/13/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##