* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/14/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 106 105 100 93 86 80 78 75 73 68 63 58 52 45 40 V (KT) LAND 105 106 106 105 100 93 86 80 78 75 73 68 63 58 52 45 40 V (KT) LGEM 105 107 106 102 97 85 76 69 63 59 57 55 49 42 35 28 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 4 6 7 4 4 5 3 2 2 2 3 5 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 3 1 2 2 0 -2 -4 -1 1 4 7 3 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 7 36 54 66 91 99 49 67 75 325 35 284 93 203 165 202 202 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.1 27.8 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.2 25.3 26.0 26.0 25.3 24.1 23.1 22.7 23.0 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 146 143 132 129 125 115 116 123 123 116 104 94 90 92 97 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 69 69 66 62 62 56 56 51 50 47 48 44 39 35 32 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 24 24 24 25 25 25 26 25 25 24 22 18 15 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -30 -29 -19 -20 -4 1 16 35 52 58 67 59 56 51 50 46 200 MB DIV 20 4 -3 16 13 -13 0 -12 14 -6 -14 -32 -19 -12 6 -3 -7 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 3 6 0 4 1 0 0 -1 0 0 3 3 0 LAND (KM) 672 699 745 802 857 1016 1205 1399 1559 1727 1866 1997 2130 1965 1741 1577 1482 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.2 18.9 18.4 18.0 17.8 18.0 18.6 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.4 115.5 116.7 117.9 120.1 122.1 124.1 125.9 127.9 129.8 131.8 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 11 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 9 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -26. -34. -40. -44. -48. -50. -54. -58. -63. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -5. -12. -19. -25. -27. -30. -32. -37. -42. -47. -53. -60. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.7 113.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/14/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 502.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 2.6% 1.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 5.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/14/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##