* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/14/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 99 97 94 91 86 83 79 78 74 70 67 62 57 52 46 42 V (KT) LAND 100 99 97 94 91 86 83 79 78 74 70 67 62 57 52 46 42 V (KT) LGEM 100 99 97 93 88 80 72 66 61 58 54 52 46 39 33 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 4 5 8 7 8 5 2 1 3 4 2 1 5 3 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 3 2 0 0 -2 0 0 1 -1 2 3 4 8 8 10 SHEAR DIR 29 30 46 89 89 71 34 57 93 202 224 336 182 60 129 164 192 SST (C) 27.8 28.1 27.9 26.8 26.6 26.1 26.2 25.0 25.3 25.9 25.6 24.8 23.3 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 144 132 130 124 125 113 116 122 120 112 96 90 91 93 97 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 62 60 57 53 52 50 50 45 44 39 36 34 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 24 25 26 26 25 26 24 22 22 20 17 14 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -27 -20 -20 -10 0 8 26 41 50 56 57 55 50 49 32 39 200 MB DIV 11 16 22 11 -10 0 -29 11 -2 -18 -24 -27 -12 -6 3 -10 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 3 7 3 1 4 4 2 0 -1 8 7 6 4 0 LAND (KM) 688 733 771 829 899 1074 1254 1426 1581 1735 1889 2047 2070 1840 1653 1521 1449 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.2 18.8 18.4 18.0 18.0 18.4 19.1 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.4 116.4 117.6 118.7 120.8 122.6 124.5 126.2 128.2 130.4 132.7 135.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 11 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -2. -3. -9. -16. -24. -31. -36. -40. -44. -47. -51. -55. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. -2. -6. -8. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -9. -14. -17. -21. -22. -26. -30. -33. -38. -43. -48. -54. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 18.2 114.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/14/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 587.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.24 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 4.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/14/21 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##