* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/14/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 42 47 51 49 46 41 43 46 48 49 51 53 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 42 47 51 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 39 32 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 11 14 17 15 20 16 22 20 27 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 0 1 -2 0 -2 2 -4 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 256 233 264 265 248 228 227 242 236 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.0 30.4 30.7 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 172 171 171 170 168 170 172 172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 157 156 156 153 153 150 140 148 157 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 7 5 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 64 66 71 70 67 64 61 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 7 8 11 10 11 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 15 23 1 0 29 1 -9 -56 -59 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 26 22 0 -2 39 23 12 14 50 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -6 -10 -1 2 6 8 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2 79 161 276 345 306 177 39 -44 -231 -500 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.6 24.1 25.0 25.8 27.2 28.6 29.9 30.9 32.7 35.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.6 83.4 84.2 84.9 85.6 86.6 87.4 87.8 87.6 87.2 86.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 9 8 7 6 7 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 63 65 53 44 50 46 27 29 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 37. 41. 42. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 17. 21. 19. 16. 11. 13. 16. 18. 19. 21. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.0 82.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/14/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.2% 7.9% 7.1% 5.3% 8.4% 8.9% 11.5% Logistic: 2.2% 7.1% 3.9% 2.5% 0.6% 5.4% 10.2% 16.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.5% 4.0% 3.2% 2.0% 4.6% 6.4% 9.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/14/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/14/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 42 47 51 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 40 45 49 36 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 36 41 45 32 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 34 38 25 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT