* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/14/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 114 108 104 96 88 81 79 72 67 62 56 50 45 39 33 V (KT) LAND 115 116 114 108 104 96 88 81 79 72 67 62 56 50 45 39 33 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 109 101 95 85 76 68 64 60 56 51 44 37 31 25 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 5 7 5 5 4 4 2 4 3 2 1 4 3 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 3 3 2 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 6 3 5 5 10 7 SHEAR DIR 10 29 81 88 106 21 56 95 2 45 263 53 199 101 189 158 207 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.0 25.5 25.2 25.7 25.9 25.4 24.3 23.1 22.8 23.1 23.5 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 132 131 131 123 118 115 120 122 117 107 95 91 93 96 94 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 60 61 55 55 51 51 47 49 45 38 34 32 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 23 24 26 27 26 28 26 24 22 20 16 12 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -17 -16 -10 0 6 22 38 55 59 64 56 58 56 40 43 20 200 MB DIV 12 26 21 5 -11 -2 -15 3 -9 -20 -29 -8 -14 -5 -2 -8 -9 700-850 TADV -2 1 4 7 7 1 3 2 1 0 0 2 5 4 5 4 -1 LAND (KM) 745 791 835 907 984 1158 1355 1530 1688 1827 1960 2108 1933 1690 1517 1481 1567 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.6 18.0 18.0 18.2 18.5 19.3 20.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.6 117.7 118.7 119.7 121.7 123.7 125.5 127.6 129.5 131.3 133.5 136.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 10 13 14 12 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -26. -36. -44. -51. -56. -61. -64. -68. -73. -77. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -1. 0. 2. 1. 3. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -7. -11. -19. -27. -34. -36. -43. -48. -53. -59. -65. -70. -76. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.6 115.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/14/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 728.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.5% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 1.0% 1.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/14/21 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##