* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/14/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 114 110 106 102 95 87 84 78 73 67 60 52 46 42 36 31 V (KT) LAND 115 114 110 106 102 95 87 84 78 73 67 60 52 46 42 36 31 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 105 99 93 82 73 67 63 59 54 46 38 31 25 21 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 6 1 6 2 2 4 1 5 2 4 7 2 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 1 3 0 -1 -2 0 3 7 11 7 9 14 13 12 SHEAR DIR 35 76 97 115 85 37 65 63 351 192 274 145 163 193 183 183 209 SST (C) 27.8 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.1 26.1 25.0 25.3 25.9 25.7 25.0 23.5 22.6 23.0 23.3 23.6 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 132 130 129 124 124 113 116 122 120 113 98 89 92 94 97 97 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 65 63 61 61 58 54 53 50 49 46 47 44 38 34 31 28 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 23 25 25 27 27 28 26 25 24 21 18 13 11 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -14 -9 -1 5 14 34 51 66 68 71 60 55 39 45 39 19 200 MB DIV 18 19 15 0 8 -18 0 0 -13 -21 -19 -4 -17 -9 -2 -12 -10 700-850 TADV 1 5 6 7 4 2 3 1 0 1 2 3 -1 2 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 777 832 899 981 1066 1257 1449 1596 1752 1904 2026 2112 1842 1626 1459 1417 1503 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.2 18.9 18.3 18.0 18.1 18.3 19.0 19.9 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.6 118.7 119.7 120.7 122.7 124.7 126.4 128.5 130.5 132.4 134.6 137.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 13 13 10 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -28. -38. -45. -52. -58. -63. -67. -71. -75. -79. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 2. 1. -0. -4. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -5. -9. -13. -20. -28. -31. -37. -42. -48. -55. -63. -69. -73. -79. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.0 116.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/14/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 778.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/14/21 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 57 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##