* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/15/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 106 101 97 93 85 81 77 70 66 59 51 44 40 36 30 26 V (KT) LAND 110 106 101 97 93 85 81 77 70 66 59 51 44 40 36 30 26 V (KT) LGEM 110 105 98 92 85 75 67 62 57 53 47 40 32 26 22 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 5 6 7 3 3 3 4 1 1 5 3 8 10 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 0 -1 -1 -1 0 0 5 11 6 8 9 14 14 14 SHEAR DIR 112 108 111 74 47 70 79 80 15 348 308 197 155 182 165 178 165 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.4 25.9 26.0 25.5 25.1 25.6 25.9 25.3 24.2 22.8 22.7 23.0 23.0 23.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 128 122 123 118 113 119 122 116 105 91 89 91 90 95 96 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 56 55 55 50 50 45 45 43 39 36 32 27 25 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 24 24 22 19 16 13 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -9 -2 4 10 25 43 60 65 71 62 56 55 50 30 21 19 200 MB DIV 22 20 3 0 -3 -21 -4 -15 -10 -35 -21 -1 -6 -6 -5 1 -5 700-850 TADV 5 6 8 3 2 4 3 0 0 1 5 0 -1 2 3 1 0 LAND (KM) 826 906 994 1084 1175 1363 1521 1665 1826 1956 2071 1986 1730 1589 1541 1471 1323 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.1 18.5 18.2 18.1 18.1 18.7 19.8 20.8 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.9 120.0 121.0 121.9 123.7 125.6 127.4 129.4 131.4 133.4 135.8 138.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 13 10 7 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -27. -35. -42. -48. -54. -60. -64. -68. -72. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -2. -2. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -25. -29. -33. -40. -44. -51. -59. -66. -70. -74. -80. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 19.3 117.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/15/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 803.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/15/21 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 76 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##