* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/15/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 91 89 87 81 79 76 73 68 60 55 51 49 49 48 45 V (KT) LAND 100 95 91 89 87 81 79 76 73 68 60 55 51 49 49 48 45 V (KT) LGEM 100 95 91 87 83 74 69 65 61 56 48 41 35 31 29 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 8 4 2 5 2 3 1 2 5 2 2 0 6 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 3 4 5 4 8 7 11 8 13 13 SHEAR DIR 103 57 35 37 115 85 131 58 181 220 227 279 271 284 243 232 211 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.4 26.6 25.9 24.9 23.3 23.2 23.6 24.2 24.7 24.7 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 127 126 128 125 124 127 130 123 113 97 95 98 104 109 109 110 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 62 58 54 53 56 53 52 47 46 45 42 39 34 30 29 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 27 28 26 26 25 24 23 20 17 14 12 12 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 0 9 3 15 23 35 56 57 62 58 46 49 51 36 26 25 18 200 MB DIV 11 11 -7 -28 -16 -3 -18 -4 -19 -17 -7 0 2 -16 -7 -7 -12 700-850 TADV 5 3 1 4 4 3 0 0 -3 3 0 1 2 3 3 2 2 LAND (KM) 991 1087 1184 1280 1377 1535 1650 1767 1902 2060 1996 1731 1504 1339 1238 1098 940 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.1 17.6 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.5 20.6 21.6 22.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.7 121.7 122.6 123.5 125.1 126.7 128.6 130.7 133.1 135.7 138.3 140.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 8 9 10 11 13 13 12 10 8 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -13. -19. -26. -31. -37. -43. -47. -51. -54. -57. -60. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -13. -19. -21. -24. -27. -32. -40. -45. -49. -51. -51. -52. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.1 119.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/15/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 726.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.08 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/15/21 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 2 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##