* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/15/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 91 88 86 82 78 75 69 64 55 48 43 42 41 39 36 V (KT) LAND 95 93 91 88 86 82 78 75 69 64 55 48 43 42 41 39 36 V (KT) LGEM 95 92 89 85 81 75 70 65 60 53 45 38 32 27 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 5 1 1 6 5 5 2 5 2 7 4 7 6 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 0 0 -2 0 1 4 3 7 11 12 14 13 16 18 SHEAR DIR 51 8 16 40 130 114 139 111 144 158 166 148 155 181 199 199 194 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.2 25.8 26.4 26.7 26.4 25.5 24.2 23.3 23.3 23.7 24.4 24.7 24.6 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 129 125 121 127 130 128 119 106 96 96 99 106 109 107 108 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 53 53 56 54 49 48 44 43 41 38 37 34 32 30 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 25 25 26 25 24 22 21 17 14 11 10 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 13 21 31 46 62 67 65 62 46 47 41 32 17 10 -2 200 MB DIV 4 -5 -27 -30 -1 -21 -14 -5 -26 2 -12 -8 -15 -7 0 0 0 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 3 3 2 0 -1 0 1 0 1 1 3 3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1087 1186 1286 1376 1464 1607 1719 1844 2011 2124 1882 1652 1447 1273 1131 1017 922 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 18.6 18.3 18.1 17.8 17.5 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.7 20.9 21.9 22.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.7 122.6 123.5 124.3 126.0 127.7 129.7 132.1 134.5 136.8 139.1 141.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -22. -28. -33. -38. -43. -46. -49. -52. -55. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -4. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -26. -31. -40. -47. -52. -53. -54. -56. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 18.9 120.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/15/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 697.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/15/21 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 74 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##