* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/16/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 85 82 81 76 71 65 59 52 47 43 42 43 43 41 38 V (KT) LAND 90 87 85 82 81 76 71 65 59 52 47 43 42 43 43 41 38 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 83 79 76 71 66 61 54 46 39 35 32 31 29 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 2 1 3 2 5 2 6 3 6 7 11 10 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -2 -2 0 1 1 2 1 4 3 5 4 11 5 7 SHEAR DIR 53 21 348 29 233 145 190 306 198 229 215 288 245 263 232 198 223 SST (C) 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.8 26.3 26.7 26.3 25.4 23.9 23.3 23.4 23.9 24.5 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 121 121 126 131 126 118 103 96 97 102 109 110 110 110 112 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 54 55 52 50 48 46 43 43 42 40 39 37 33 31 31 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 26 25 27 25 24 22 20 18 17 14 13 13 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 16 22 31 34 44 60 66 63 63 43 36 32 34 16 20 3 -6 200 MB DIV -26 -14 -10 -19 -32 -4 5 -14 0 -12 2 -21 -3 0 6 15 -6 700-850 TADV 3 3 4 3 1 -2 -1 -3 0 3 1 0 3 -1 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 1278 1360 1442 1512 1584 1727 1845 1997 2080 1830 1624 1394 1159 954 788 684 622 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.8 17.6 17.8 18.3 18.9 20.0 20.8 21.2 21.8 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.5 123.3 124.1 125.0 125.8 127.9 129.8 132.0 134.9 137.3 139.3 141.6 144.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 13 13 11 11 11 12 10 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -14. -19. -25. -31. -36. -40. -43. -45. -48. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 1. -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -9. -14. -19. -25. -31. -38. -43. -47. -48. -47. -47. -49. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.3 122.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/16/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.96 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 668.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.15 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/16/21 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 63 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##