* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/16/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 88 86 84 82 77 73 67 60 53 49 46 45 45 45 42 38 V (KT) LAND 90 88 86 84 82 77 73 67 60 53 49 46 45 45 45 42 38 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 83 80 77 72 67 60 51 44 39 35 33 31 29 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 2 2 4 7 3 1 2 4 6 3 9 7 9 16 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -3 -3 -1 3 5 1 4 3 8 5 10 11 8 8 SHEAR DIR 35 1 57 92 127 124 251 340 211 234 256 236 239 220 204 180 198 SST (C) 26.4 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.2 27.1 26.0 25.1 23.8 23.4 23.8 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.2 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 120 120 122 125 135 124 115 102 97 101 106 108 111 113 114 117 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 56 53 50 48 47 43 43 42 40 37 35 32 32 31 30 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 25 26 26 23 24 22 19 17 16 14 14 13 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 33 46 57 53 64 55 53 41 41 38 30 18 14 -6 -20 200 MB DIV -8 -13 -20 -25 -17 -6 -5 0 -13 -13 0 -20 -1 0 23 -1 0 700-850 TADV 3 4 2 1 0 0 -3 0 1 0 1 3 1 1 2 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1366 1453 1528 1584 1643 1775 1919 2078 1954 1686 1436 1194 961 776 646 584 572 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.5 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.4 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.3 124.2 125.0 125.8 126.6 128.6 130.9 133.3 136.1 138.7 141.2 143.7 146.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -14. -20. -26. -31. -36. -40. -42. -45. -48. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. -3. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -12. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -23. -30. -37. -41. -44. -45. -45. -45. -48. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.0 123.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/16/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.96 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 658.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/16/21 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 88 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##