* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/17/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 74 71 69 63 57 49 43 39 39 37 36 37 35 32 29 V (KT) LAND 80 77 74 71 69 63 57 49 43 39 39 37 36 37 35 32 29 V (KT) LGEM 80 76 73 71 68 62 54 47 41 37 35 33 32 30 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 4 6 5 2 3 8 7 9 11 17 17 20 20 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -2 0 0 0 4 0 2 3 3 1 5 0 3 -4 -10 SHEAR DIR 179 161 179 155 169 304 174 213 202 259 228 242 222 212 208 232 257 SST (C) 26.1 26.5 27.1 27.0 26.6 25.5 24.4 23.4 23.8 24.3 24.6 24.5 24.9 25.2 25.4 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 128 135 134 130 119 108 98 102 106 109 107 112 115 117 120 121 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 47 46 42 40 40 38 38 35 34 32 32 32 31 32 29 28 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 23 22 23 20 20 17 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 45 54 56 53 59 54 53 42 40 37 39 14 11 3 -6 -23 -36 200 MB DIV -14 -11 -14 -4 -8 -10 2 -25 0 -3 -9 3 -8 -2 -14 -6 -1 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 0 -1 -6 0 1 3 0 5 0 6 3 -1 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1599 1669 1742 1807 1875 2032 2061 1777 1479 1219 1009 838 689 538 383 358 407 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.6 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.9 19.7 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.6 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.0 127.9 129.0 130.0 132.4 135.1 137.8 140.7 143.3 145.5 147.4 149.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 11 13 13 14 13 11 10 9 9 10 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -27. -30. -33. -35. -37. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -16. -14. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -17. -23. -31. -37. -41. -41. -43. -43. -43. -45. -48. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.6 126.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/17/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.12 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 690.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/17/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##