* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/17/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 68 66 64 59 52 44 40 39 38 37 36 36 35 33 30 V (KT) LAND 75 71 68 66 64 59 52 44 40 39 38 37 36 36 35 33 30 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 69 66 63 57 50 44 39 36 35 33 32 30 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 4 5 2 2 3 4 7 7 12 15 18 20 18 23 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 2 4 1 1 0 5 2 3 5 2 2 -1 -8 SHEAR DIR 161 166 139 178 204 34 166 175 230 250 245 225 222 216 232 248 267 SST (C) 26.2 26.7 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.2 24.1 23.6 24.0 24.5 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 130 133 129 124 116 105 100 104 108 112 117 122 129 129 125 123 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 47 43 41 41 42 40 39 37 35 32 33 32 33 32 30 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 22 21 20 18 15 14 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 52 53 46 55 57 45 47 36 32 41 20 20 7 3 -3 -20 -28 200 MB DIV -16 -20 -13 -7 -5 6 -7 -17 5 -5 8 -5 0 -23 4 -11 -17 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 -1 -4 -3 0 -2 0 3 4 3 4 1 0 1 -4 LAND (KM) 1673 1730 1790 1862 1938 2114 1934 1643 1358 1089 871 685 543 381 242 230 295 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.1 18.3 19.2 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.8 128.7 129.8 130.9 133.5 136.3 139.1 141.9 144.6 146.9 149.0 150.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 11 12 14 14 13 13 12 10 9 10 12 10 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -17. -20. -23. -25. -27. -28. -30. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -16. -23. -31. -35. -36. -37. -38. -39. -39. -40. -42. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.5 126.9 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/17/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 653.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.17 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/17/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##