* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062021 08/17/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 30 30 29 29 28 26 25 23 21 19 18 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 33 32 30 29 27 25 22 21 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 21 23 21 24 28 28 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 -2 4 2 0 -1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 231 237 245 239 256 259 269 289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.1 24.3 21.3 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 165 161 156 152 139 99 83 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 141 134 127 112 83 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.9 -55.5 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 3 3 6 2 5 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 57 58 56 57 58 62 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 12 10 10 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -55 -68 -55 -47 -38 -31 -20 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 36 13 2 -7 -2 6 -22 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 28 22 24 28 4 3 -6 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -358 -385 -463 -423 -359 -200 -154 -85 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 35.4 37.0 38.4 39.7 41.1 42.0 42.3 42.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.4 83.2 82.0 80.6 79.1 76.5 74.0 72.1 69.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 18 18 15 11 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 6. 0. -5. -9. -15. -19. -24. -30. -33. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 1. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.8 84.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062021 FRED 08/17/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.03 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.75 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 6.3% 4.9% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.5% 1.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062021 FRED 08/17/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062021 FRED 08/17/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 29 30 30 33 32 30 29 27 25 22 21 24 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 27 28 28 31 30 28 27 25 23 20 19 22 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 24 25 25 28 27 25 24 22 20 17 16 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 18 18 21 20 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT