* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/18/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 93 92 89 85 73 61 53 47 44 44 42 40 39 38 33 31 V (KT) LAND 90 93 92 89 85 73 61 53 47 44 44 42 40 39 38 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 90 92 90 86 80 66 55 49 45 42 40 38 36 34 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 5 3 3 3 8 8 14 15 19 19 20 22 32 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 4 0 2 0 2 2 3 4 6 3 3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 140 170 220 293 349 230 206 255 258 246 225 229 209 225 237 258 261 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.7 25.0 24.3 23.9 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.7 26.1 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.8 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 124 122 115 107 103 106 110 112 120 124 132 128 127 131 128 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 40 40 40 39 40 39 36 34 31 32 34 32 31 30 33 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 20 20 18 15 14 14 13 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 52 49 45 47 37 32 40 23 21 12 3 -3 -18 -25 -31 200 MB DIV 1 -8 -8 -17 -10 -8 -14 7 -6 8 -11 7 -7 9 -11 10 -32 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -6 -3 0 -2 -1 2 3 5 6 1 0 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1814 1887 1964 2062 2165 1892 1590 1273 1013 782 591 434 291 210 135 166 296 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.3 18.7 19.1 20.0 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.1 22.4 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 129.0 130.1 131.2 132.6 134.0 136.7 139.6 142.7 145.3 147.7 149.8 151.9 154.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 1 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -18. -25. -30. -35. -38. -40. -41. -42. -44. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -5. -17. -29. -37. -42. -46. -46. -48. -50. -51. -52. -57. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.8 129.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/18/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 838.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.7 56.6 to 0.0 0.51 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 0.5% 2.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/18/21 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 89 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##