* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/18/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 87 82 78 66 56 49 44 39 37 36 34 33 30 29 28 V (KT) LAND 90 90 87 82 78 66 56 49 44 39 37 36 34 33 30 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 90 90 86 80 73 62 53 49 45 42 39 37 34 31 28 26 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 4 1 4 8 12 13 18 23 24 18 22 32 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 2 3 0 0 -1 0 1 4 0 9 -1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 164 209 270 313 234 254 239 272 249 244 225 212 218 254 249 255 264 SST (C) 26.4 25.9 25.7 25.0 24.7 23.7 24.0 24.5 24.8 25.4 26.0 26.6 26.7 26.2 26.8 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 121 115 112 101 104 109 111 117 123 130 131 126 132 128 132 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 40 39 39 39 38 37 34 31 30 32 32 35 34 35 36 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 20 20 18 16 15 15 13 13 13 13 12 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 52 49 46 42 53 44 40 37 38 20 25 11 2 -2 -21 -38 -43 200 MB DIV -15 -7 -21 -23 -8 -11 0 1 -7 8 -2 9 -2 0 -21 -18 -31 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -6 -6 -1 0 0 1 6 5 7 6 4 2 1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1898 1980 2068 2169 2020 1704 1383 1110 839 643 492 354 202 134 145 300 481 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.6 19.1 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.3 21.5 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 130.1 131.4 132.6 134.0 135.5 138.5 141.6 144.3 147.0 149.1 151.0 153.1 155.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 11 9 9 11 11 11 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 1 4 5 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. -40. -41. -42. -44. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -2. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -12. -12. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -8. -12. -24. -34. -41. -46. -51. -53. -54. -56. -57. -60. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 17.9 130.1 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/18/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 861.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.13 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/18/21 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 74 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##