* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/18/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 82 79 73 62 52 47 41 41 37 36 34 33 31 29 28 V (KT) LAND 90 87 82 79 73 62 52 47 41 41 37 36 34 33 31 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 82 75 69 58 52 48 45 42 39 36 33 30 28 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 6 2 3 4 10 12 17 17 22 26 24 25 31 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 5 2 3 0 2 0 6 7 6 3 2 -5 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 215 268 305 227 247 223 255 252 251 229 215 209 224 244 250 246 248 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.0 24.8 24.3 24.3 24.5 24.8 24.9 25.5 26.0 26.4 26.7 26.6 26.9 26.9 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 115 113 107 107 109 112 112 119 124 128 131 130 133 133 131 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.9 -54.0 -54.6 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 41 39 39 38 38 35 33 30 31 31 32 34 36 37 38 37 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 20 21 19 16 14 14 13 14 12 13 12 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 36 49 51 41 37 39 29 25 24 6 -3 -20 -29 -41 -37 200 MB DIV -6 -29 -19 -13 -14 -6 8 -12 0 -5 10 10 3 -6 -12 -2 -19 700-850 TADV -2 -5 -6 -2 0 -2 0 5 4 9 4 3 2 5 2 4 4 LAND (KM) 1986 2074 2167 2026 1861 1548 1240 968 749 558 397 274 215 164 255 461 722 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.5 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.5 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.3 132.6 133.9 135.5 137.0 140.0 143.0 145.7 148.0 150.3 152.7 155.0 157.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 14 14 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 5 3 7 8 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. -40. -41. -42. -43. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -5. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -11. -13. -12. -12. -12. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -11. -17. -28. -38. -43. -49. -49. -53. -54. -56. -57. -59. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 18.1 131.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/18/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 847.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/18/21 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI=100 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##