* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082021 08/18/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 67 68 69 69 69 76 78 73 68 59 53 49 46 44 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 67 68 69 69 69 76 78 73 68 59 53 49 46 44 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 66 67 68 69 72 79 81 75 62 51 47 47 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 22 26 26 23 18 13 6 12 8 4 8 14 15 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 -1 -3 0 1 -1 3 1 0 0 2 -1 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 24 22 19 21 28 16 360 328 28 81 109 148 238 276 277 283 267 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.6 28.9 28.6 27.2 25.1 21.7 22.2 22.8 23.6 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 159 160 159 154 154 162 150 145 126 105 85 87 91 98 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 136 136 135 128 129 138 126 119 103 88 74 75 79 85 75 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 9 6 4 1 1 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 51 52 53 56 61 65 67 67 68 65 64 64 64 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 19 20 20 25 28 26 23 19 16 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -51 -46 -40 -48 -48 -44 -31 -29 -38 -6 -17 -27 -48 -45 -2 4 200 MB DIV -10 -24 -9 -5 15 -9 26 14 48 8 34 -8 41 -22 10 3 31 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -5 -8 -4 -4 11 4 1 -3 -7 3 2 9 12 12 LAND (KM) 1028 969 908 837 768 651 540 436 433 463 336 233 228 175 235 328 278 LAT (DEG N) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.3 31.1 33.0 35.1 37.0 38.7 40.2 41.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.1 68.0 68.9 69.8 70.8 72.0 72.7 72.2 71.0 70.1 69.3 68.0 66.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 5 7 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 12 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 33 31 29 26 26 29 28 31 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 8. 11. 8. 4. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 16. 18. 13. 8. -1. -7. -11. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.9 67.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082021 HENRI 08/18/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 439.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.48 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 15.2% 9.7% 9.4% 7.0% 9.3% 7.7% 6.6% Logistic: 9.7% 13.5% 9.1% 8.8% 8.4% 8.5% 5.1% 3.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 8.7% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.6% 12.5% 7.0% 6.2% 5.1% 6.1% 4.3% 3.3% DTOPS: 4.0% 9.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082021 HENRI 08/18/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082021 HENRI 08/18/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 65 67 68 69 69 69 76 78 73 68 59 53 49 46 44 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 64 65 65 65 72 74 69 64 55 49 45 42 40 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 59 60 60 60 67 69 64 59 50 44 40 37 35 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 52 52 52 59 61 56 51 42 36 32 29 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT