* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/18/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 74 67 61 54 47 43 40 39 37 33 31 28 26 25 26 V (KT) LAND 85 79 74 67 61 54 47 43 40 39 37 33 31 28 26 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 85 80 73 67 62 54 49 46 43 41 38 34 31 28 27 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 5 6 4 8 14 17 21 24 29 32 35 36 28 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 0 0 4 4 1 0 8 4 6 -4 -2 -4 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 259 299 200 238 260 246 257 244 241 223 219 225 233 245 248 255 259 SST (C) 25.7 24.9 24.7 24.3 23.8 24.3 24.6 24.8 25.0 25.8 26.1 26.7 26.4 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 113 112 108 102 107 110 112 113 122 125 131 128 133 131 132 131 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 39 38 38 37 35 33 30 29 30 30 33 33 35 35 36 38 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 18 20 18 17 16 13 14 13 13 12 11 11 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 43 33 43 48 42 40 30 36 26 31 19 3 -10 -23 -35 -33 -32 200 MB DIV -37 -23 -11 -14 -16 8 5 -16 11 -9 4 -4 8 -20 -15 -10 21 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -2 0 1 1 1 5 4 9 3 -1 3 0 3 0 3 LAND (KM) 2065 2164 2042 1877 1714 1402 1117 857 647 482 343 249 187 213 353 556 814 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.4 21.9 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.5 133.9 135.3 136.9 138.4 141.4 144.2 146.8 149.1 151.3 153.6 156.0 158.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 14 14 13 12 10 11 11 12 10 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 1 6 6 8 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -18. -23. -28. -31. -33. -35. -36. -37. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -13. -14. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -18. -24. -31. -38. -42. -45. -46. -48. -52. -54. -57. -59. -60. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 18.5 132.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/18/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 817.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/18/21 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 20 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##