* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP122021 08/19/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 68 62 57 51 47 44 42 40 39 36 31 26 23 22 22 V (KT) LAND 80 75 68 62 57 51 47 44 42 40 39 36 31 26 23 22 22 V (KT) LGEM 80 74 68 63 58 52 48 45 42 39 36 32 29 27 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 5 4 7 10 14 14 19 22 33 36 46 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 0 2 2 3 1 6 7 9 -5 -5 -9 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 212 261 261 246 260 249 257 231 222 217 247 246 245 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 24.8 24.3 23.8 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.5 25.9 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.8 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 107 102 107 109 111 112 118 123 128 130 132 132 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -53.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 38 37 34 33 31 29 30 30 31 32 32 33 34 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 17 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 44 46 40 36 32 34 29 26 19 7 -8 -29 -35 -39 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -16 -1 -16 -30 -3 12 -7 1 -3 2 -3 0 0 -18 -13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 0 0 1 5 4 6 4 0 0 0 -2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2170 2026 1872 1709 1547 1239 975 743 561 410 267 191 168 309 498 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.9 21.2 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.3 23.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.5 136.9 138.5 140.0 143.0 145.6 148.0 150.2 152.4 154.8 157.3 159.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 11 10 11 12 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 4 7 9 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -26. -28. -29. -30. -31. -33. -35. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -12. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -12. -18. -23. -29. -33. -36. -38. -40. -41. -44. -49. -54. -57. -58. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.0 134.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/19/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.3 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 751.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.06 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/19/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##